The halving cuts new issuance every four years, but today that is about 450 BTC a day — less than a typical day of ETF flows. Here is why the cycle still works as a calendar of expectations, and why four observations are a thin basis for conclusions.
Citi has published four different Bitcoin targets within a year: $143,000, $112,000, $82,000 and $113,000. Here is what goes into such a number, why it tracks ETF flows, and how it differs from a forecast you can rely on.
On September 29, US job openings and consumer confidence missed forecasts, and the odds of an October rate hike fell from 70.9% to 51.5%. Here is how the "bad news is good news" regime works and where it breaks.
The US 10-year real yield has climbed to 2.91%, its highest since 2008, and all of September's rise in rates came from the real component rather than inflation expectations. We explain how it is derived from TIPS, why it matters more for bitcoin than the nominal rate, and why it is no guide to next week's price.
Brent is back above $100, the 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest since 2007, and Bitcoin shed about $1,500 on the morning of September 28. We unpack the oil → inflation → rates → Bitcoin chain and where it fails.
Bitcoin is closing Q3 up about 43.5%, and seasonality tables point to an "average +77%" in Q4. Here is why a 13-year average is driven by one or two extreme years, and how to read seasonal statistics without fooling yourself.
Bitcoin has climbed almost 47% from its June low, and analysts are calling the end of crypto winter. We look at how market regimes are defined, why the February 2026 "bottom" turned out to be false, and what to check instead of headlines.
In September 2026 bitcoin moved above the estimated average cost basis of US spot ETF holders, roughly $81,722. How the level is calculated, why breakeven selling can cluster around it, and where the metric misleads.
On September 24 Bitcoin slipped below $84,000 as FedWatch showed a 75.3% chance of a Fed hike in October. Here is where that number comes from, why it is a futures price rather than a Fed forecast, and why crypto reacts to changing odds before the decision itself.
Bitcoin is heading for its first three-month winning streak since 2012: July +4.8%, August +25.2%, September +10.9% so far. Why a single historical precedent predicts nothing, and which numbers matter more than the streak itself.
About $15.9 billion of BTC options expire on Deribit on September 25, 2026, roughly 37% of open interest. We explain how the settlement price is set, what max pain really measures and why dealer gamma and the unwinding of hedges matter more for price.
A Bitcoin fee primarily depends on the signed transaction size in virtual bytes and current demand for block space, not the amount being transferred. Sending one million satoshis can cost less than sending one thousand when the first transaction spends one input while the second must combine many small UTXOs.
